The Peace Process Frozen And It Is Business As Usual

One month after London conference failed to revive the moribund Israeli Palestinian peace process; it was business as usual in the Middle East. Shooting and rioting; Damascus calling for an Arab summit and urging countries that made peace with Jewish State to sever relations; Hamas leaders renewed the calls for the destruction of Israel and Jewish settlers' acts of provocation were back in the headlines.

On 8 June Jewish Settlers moved into four homes in Arab East Jerusalem and scuffles broke between them and Palestinians backed by Israeli protesters from the Peace Now movement who claimed that settlers acted with a tacit approval from the Israeli government. The settlers legally bought the houses from absentee landlords, but such practice in the past lead to internal violence on the Palestinian side as Arab estate agents involved in the deals were brutally murdered, while human rights organisations accused the Palestinian Authority PA of tacitly sanctioning the murders.

A day later, Israel's interior ministry gave the go-ahead for construction of 58 homes for Jews on the Mount of Olives in annexed east Jerusalem. The land had been slated for an Arab girls' school. Beit Orot, the Jewish seminary, which was granted the permission is funded by the Florida based American Jewish bingo millionaire, Irving Moskovitz, who opposes the Oslo peace deal. Palestinians responded by asking the U.N. Security Council to take action against Israel for approving the construction, but there was no indication the council was prepared to act on the issue. The PA called for a "general mobilisation" of Arabs against Jewish settlement policies.

Ahmed Abdel Rahman, the Secretary-General of the PA described the granting of permission to more than double the complement of 100 Jews studying at Beit Orot seminary, '' the latest in a continued a series of provocations," by settlers.

The militant Islamic movement Hamas went on burning Israeli and American flags vowing to '' make Israel pay dearly in blood,'' if the movement spiritual leader Sheikh Ahamed Yassin, who was on a tour in Arab countries, would be barred from returning home.

After debating for weeks whether the sheikh poses a greater danger from outside or inside Gaza, they decided to allow him back. "The choice is not between what is good and better, but between what is bad and worse," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Israel radio.

What appeared earlier in the month to be a glimpse of hope was vanishing fast.

First was a secret meeting held in London between two top Palestinian officials and the tireless US envoy Dennis Ross, who also held talks with unidentified Israelis.

The second was Mr Netanyahu announcement during a radio interview that he was '' seriously considering letting the Israeli public vote on a U.S. proposal for a further troop withdrawal from the West Bank.''

"It is obligatory, above all, that there be broad public support so the rifts in the nation will heal and we have domestic peace, not just external peace," Mr Netanyahu said, commenting on the idea of a referendum.

Right-wing members of his coalition have threatened to bring down his government if he goes ahead with a pullback. Netanyahu's aide, David Bar-Illan, said his '' feeling is that a vote will probably be on a package ... which will include Palestinian compliance and the total scope of withdrawals by Israel." Israel's Cabinet was expected to vote (On 14 June) on an U.S. initiative the details of which were published in Israeli the daily Ha'aretz on 8 June. Israel troops were to pull back from 13 percent of the West Bank in return for Palestinian moves to increase security in the territory and fight terror. The basic contours of the plan, a three-stage withdrawal over three months with each phase tied to Palestinian commitments, is believed to have remained unchanged since the Americans advanced it this year. The American proposal, the plan would give PA outright control of 18.2 percent of the West Bank, and civil (though not military) jurisdiction over a further 21.8 percent. It thus gives PA full or partial control of 40 percent of the West Bank. The PA currently exercise full control over just 3 percent of the West Bank, with partial, civil administration over 24 percent more of it, largely in the most populated cities. In return, the PA would step up its security co-operation with Israel and the Americans, and Arafat would issue a decree against incitement.

After the secret London meeting - so secret that neither the Foreign Office or the Palestinian representative to Britain knew nothing about it- which was attended by Abu Mazen, the second in command in the Palestinian Authority structure and Abu Alla the Speaker of the Palestinian National Council, the PA issued a statement officially endorsing the American proposal.

Sources close to the meeting said the Palestinians were assured by the Americans that they will back them fully if they were to accept the 13% proposals.

Mr Netanyahu, who was openly talking about nine per cent and leaking news about 11%, which is also rejected by his right wing coalition partners, came up with the idea of a referendum on the withdrawal.

Palestinian negotiator Hassan Asfour said Netanyahu was using the referendum as an excuse not to carry out withdrawals it is committed to completing. "The peace process, the political process and implementing the redeployments do not need a referendum. What is needed is a Prime Minister who is serious about the implementation of agreements," Asfour said.

But regional and local development, in the opinion of neutral observers, were pushing Israeli electorate away from accepting the American plans and from considering the kind of Prime Minister wanted by Mr Asfour.

There was a danger that Israeli public opinion would swing against the proposal, following a rise in support for HAMAS militant Islamic group, according to a report by Henry Siegman, a senior fellow at the New York based Council on Foreign Relations.

Hamas leader 61 year old Sheikh Ahmad Yassin - who was freed from an Israeli prison last year following a Mossad fiasco as they tried to assassinate the movement political organiser Khalid Mishaal in Jordan - went in whirlwind tour in Arab and Muslim countries.

The Sheikh left his base in Gaza Feb. 19 citing the need for medical treatment in Egypt - on a diplomatic passport with the approval of the Israelis- promptly embarked on a comprehensive tour of the Arab world and Iran, where he met with the mighty, dispensed incendiary pronouncements to the media and was received with the pomp and fanfare ordinarily reserved for heads of state. Along the way, he reportedly raised donations estimated between $40 to 60 million for Hamas, whose avowed goal is to eliminate Israel through armed attacks. "The first quarter of the next century will witness the elimination of the Zionist entity [Israel] and the establishment of the Palestinian state over the whole of Palestine," he said in Damascus. "The strong will not remain strong forever, and the weak will not remain weak. Things change." he said in Yemen where he was awarded an honorary doctorate.

When Sheikh Yassin went to Saudi Arabia to attend the annual pilgrimage to Mecca, he was invited to meet King Fahd, and Crown prince Abdullah.

Within days, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iran had extended invitations.

Next, he went to Kuwait, where he was warmly welcomed by Crown Prince Sheikh Sad -which more to do with internal politics and with Kuwait still angry with Mr Arafat for supporting Saddam Hussein's invasion of the emirate in 1990-.

Then the Sheikh went to, Syria also angry with Arafat for making a separate deal with Israel. His last stop was Sudan, a hot bed for Islamic militancy. Khartoum suggested setting up a charity to aid Palestinians in Gaza.

Hamas officials say they are trying to set up a meeting between Sheikh Yassin with and Saddam Hussein in Iraq. From there, say the officials; he may go to Pakistan and Malaysia.

The Arabic language papers Al Watan al Arabi, said that Iranian spiritual leader Ali Khamenei pledged to support Hamas with $15 million a month. Saudi Sources told the Sunday Times that Hamas received $25 million from a senior member of the Saudi royal family. Western observers tend to dismiss such reports. "The pledges don't always match the reality," said one diplomat. "It's a lot of promises, but sometimes there's delivery of the first million and never anything else." Nonetheless, the perception of legitimacy conferred on Hamas by such reports -- which are widely believed by Palestinians -- could undermine the position of Arafat and others involved in the peace process. "They [Hamas] want to harvest the failure of the peace process in terms of popular support. And they're active in grass-roots activity, which may be more dangerous in the long term," said Ghassan Khatib, director of the Jerusalem Media and Communications Centre, in an interview with the Washington Post. "Their concern is to prevent any progress in the peace process and keep their distance" from the authority.

As were going to print Sheikh Yassin was set to return to Gaza [ 13 June] a rising star -- a man regarded in Israel and Washington as a leading terrorist who is riding a wave of enhanced prestige in the Arab world. Both Israeli and Palestinian Authority officials fear that Hamas may use the funds raised not only for the group's extensive social network of charitable societies, mosques, medical clinics and orphanages - which all undermine Arafat authority -, but also to carry out attacks on Israel. There has been no major such attack since last September, when a triple suicide bombing on one of Jerusalem's main downtown shopping streets killed seven people and injured 190 others.

Support for Hamas usually mirrors Palestinian backing for the peace process, slumping when negotiations are going well and rising when they fail, as they have done for 15 months. This time, Hamas is interpreting Arab and Islamic world support, and the grand welcome Sheikh Yassin has received abroad, as backing of its strategy rather than a measure of disillusion with the peace process.

"Hamas is pleased," said Ismail Abu Shanab, one of the movement's leaders in Gaza. "Sheikh Yassin is a symbol of resistance and Jihad. He has been invited by those countries. This means they give support and legitimacy to this path, which is the path that can stop Mr Netanyahu's aggression and bring back stolen Arab land."

His return is bad news for Arafat and the PA and also bad news for Israel.

Greeted in Gaza as a hero after his Oct. 6 release, Yassin made Arafat uncomfortable from the start. At first, he sounded vaguely conciliatory, offering a "truce" with Israel "for a while." But he also reiterated Hamas's fundamental goal -- to see Israel obliterated. Soon he was threatening new attacks on the Jewish state. As a sworn enemy of the Oslo peace accords and the Middle East peace process, which he regards as a sell-out of Palestinian national aspirations, Yassin posed a creeping challenge to Arafat's rule. His popularity though still just a fraction of Arafat's, has edged up as peace talks have faltered and Palestinian frustrations have mounted. More than 8 percent of Palestinians now tell pollsters that Yassin is the political figure they trust most, up from 5 percent at the time of his release. At the same time, Arafat's public standing, which is tied closely to the peace process, is tumbling. While he remains firmly in command of Palestinian politics, just 38 percent of Palestinians now call him their most trusted politician, down from 46 percent in October last years. That shifting equation, and the fading fortunes of the peace process, evidently persuaded Yassin the time was right to launch his tour.